Jack Malvey examines the major geopolitical events of the past century along with associated market reactions, current geopolitical risks and the impact on investment decision-making in light of those rising risks.
Geopolitical risks clearly have risen in the early 21st century. A modified World Order, yet to be fully defined, looms. Classic capitalism has spawned numerous offspring with varying political and economic characteristics. Especially in an era of quickening technological change, ideological and theological differences breed disagreements among some nations. Although not necessarily a core competency for many capital market practitioners, strategic and tactical portfolio management must reckon with geopolitical risk in its decision-making process.
This report defines geopolitical risk in a broad manner, lists major geopolitical events over the past century along with associated market reactions, looks at the strategic and current menu of geopolitical risks, addresses investment decision-making in light of such evolving geopolitical risks, and posits potential high impact and high-likelihood geopolitical risk developments over the next decade to 2025.
Virtually nothing can slam an economic outlook and investment portfolio more suddenly than adverse and often largely unpredictable geopolitical developments.
Share this quote:
The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation.
BNY Mellon Investment Management is an investment management organization, encompassing BNY Mellon’s affiliated investment management firms, wealth management organization and global distribution companies. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and may also be used as a generic term to reference the Corporation as a whole or its various subsidiaries generally.
This information is not investment advice, though may be deemed a financial promotion in non-U.S. jurisdictions. Accordingly, where used or distributed in any non-U.S. jurisdiction, the information provided is for Professional Clients only. This information is not for onward distribution to, or to be relied upon by Retail Clients.
Any statements and opinions expressed are as at the date of publication, are subject to change as economic and market conditions dictate, and do not necessarily represent the views of BNY Mellon or any of its affiliates. The information has been provided as a general market commentary only and does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, other professional counsel or investment advice, is not predictive of future performance, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or make an offer where otherwise unlawful. The information has been provided without taking into account the investment objective, financial situation or needs of any particular person. BNY Mellon and its affiliates are not responsible for any subsequent investment advice given based on the information supplied. This is not investment research or a research recommendation for regulatory purposes as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. To the extent that these materials contain statements about future performance, such statements are forward looking and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources which BNY Mellon believed to be reliable, but BNY Mellon makes no representation to its accuracy and completeness. BNY Mellon accepts no liability for loss arising from use of this material. If nothing is indicated to the contrary, all figures are unaudited.
Any indication of past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments can fall as well as rise, so investors may get back less than originally invested.
Not for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country in which such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. This information may not be distributed or used for the purpose of offers or solicitations in any jurisdiction or in any circumstances in which such offers or solicitations are unlawful or not authorized, or where there would be, by virtue of such distribution, new or additional registration requirements. Persons into whose possession this information comes are required to inform themselves about and to observe any restrictions that apply to the distribution of this information in their jurisdiction. The investment products and services mentioned here are not insured by the FDIC (or any other state or federal agency), are not deposits of or guaranteed by any bank, and may lose value.
This information should not be published in hard copy, electronic form, via the web or in any other medium accessible to the public, unless authorized by BNY Mellon Investment Management.
This information is approved for Global distribution and is issued in the following jurisdictions by the named local entities or divisions: Europe, Middle East, Africa and Latin America (excluding Germany, Brazil, Dubai): BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited, BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London EC4V 4LA. Registered in England No. 1118580. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. • Germany: Meriten Investment Management GmbH which is regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. • Dubai, United Arab Emirates: Dubai branch of The Bank of New York Mellon, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. This material is intended for Professional Clients only and no other person should act upon it. • Singapore: BNY Mellon Investment Management Singapore Pte. Limited Co. Reg. 201230427E. Regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. • Hong Kong: BNY Mellon Investment Management Hong Kong Limited / BNY Mellon Managed Investments Limited. Regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. • Japan: BNY Mellon Asset Management Japan Limited. BNY Mellon Asset Management Japan Limited is a Financial Instruments Business Operator with license no 406 (Kinsho) at the Commissioner of Kanto Local Finance Bureau and is a Member of the Investment Trusts Association, Japan and Japan Securities Investment Advisers Association. • Australia: BNY Mellon Investment Management Australia Ltd (ABN 56 102 482 815, AFS License No. 227865). Authorized and regulated by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. • United States: BNY Mellon Investment Management. • Canada: Securities are offered through BNY Mellon Asset Management Canada Ltd., registered as a Portfolio Manager and Exempt Market Dealer in all provinces and territories of Canada, and as an Investment Fund Manager and Commodity Trading Manager in Ontario. • Brazil: this document is issued by ARX Investimentos Ltda., Av. Borges de Medeiros, 633, 4th floor, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, CEP 22430-041. Authorized and regulated by the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM).
The issuing entities above are BNY Mellon entities ultimately owned by The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited (“BNYMIM EMEA”) is the distributor of the capabilities of its investment managers in Europe (excluding funds in Germany), Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Investment managers are appointed by BNYMIM EMEA or affiliated fund operating companies to undertake portfolio management services in respect of the products and services provided by BNYMIM EMEA or the fund operating companies. These products and services are governed by bilateral contracts entered into by BNYMIM EMEA and its clients or by the Prospectus and associated documents related to the funds.
BNY Mellon Cash Investment Strategies is a division of The Dreyfus Corporation. • Insight Investment Management Limited and Meriten Investment Management GmbH do not offer services in the U.S. This information does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, any of the firms’ services or funds to any U.S. investor, or where otherwise unlawful. • BNY Mellon owns 90% of The Boston Company Asset Management, LLC and the remainder is owned by employees of the firm. • The Newton Group (“Newton”) is comprised of the following affiliated companies: Newton Investment Management Limited, Newton Capital Management Limited (NCM Ltd), Newton Capital Management LLC (NCM LLC), NCM LLC personnel are supervised persons of NCM Ltd and NCM LLC does not provide investment advice, all of which is conducted by NCM Ltd. Only NCM LLC and NCM Ltd offer services in the U.S. • BNY Mellon owns a 20%
©2015 The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
Chief Global Markets Strategist, BNY Mellon Investment Management
Vice President – Global Market Strategy, BNY Mellon Investment Management
Global Markets Strategist, BNY Mellon Investment Management
Investment Analyst, BNY Mellon Investment Management
Investment Analyst, BNY Mellon Center for Global Investment and Market Intelligence, BNY Mellon Investment Management