Economist Intelligence Unit report includes assessments by leading economists, investors and financiers
NEW YORK, December 5, 2012 — The US and European economies will face significant challenges in 2013 and beyond regardless of the scope and direction of imminent fiscal decisions globally, according to a new BNY Mellon-sponsored report from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). The report, Fiscal Decision Time for Political Leaders, examines and details the diverse opinions of leading market watchers and participants.
The report's key findings include:
- Experts are divided on whether government leaders will make the tough fiscal decisions necessary to save their economies. In spite of widespread pessimism, some experts believe US leaders could come up with a "grand compromise" and European leaders could move toward greater fiscal and regulatory union.
- Viewing the US "fiscal cliff" as a binary event distorts what's likely to happen. Although the equity markets would likely rebound if lawmakers achieved structural reform, experts agree that the US is likely to experience a fiscal drag in any case.
- The European economy faces two major uncertainties: Will European countries ever submit themselves to outside fiscal control? Will the European Central Bank cut off an ailing country from further support if it fails to meet conditions for its loans, thus triggering the type of panic it seeks to avoid?
"While the threat of a return to financial instability may inspire politicians on both sides of the Atlantic to make the difficult political and fiscal decisions that have been avoided for years, our report details a significant divide of opinions on the decisions that will actually be made and the impact of those decisions," said James P. Palermo, vice chairman and CEO of Global Client Management for BNY Mellon.
The report is a byproduct of BNY Mellon-sponsored Search for Growth research examining the prospects for economic and market growth from the perspective of both institutional investors and corporate executives. Based on a global survey of almost 800 respondents carried out by the EIU in January 2012, and a series of in-depth interviews with leading investors and experts, the research explores the potential for growth across a wide range of sectors, regions and asset classes. It also explores the likelihood and potential impact of a range of both positive and negative scenarios.
Fiscal Decision Time for Political Leaders is available at http://www.bnymellon.com/foresight/pdf/eiu-fiscal-1212.pdf. More on the Search for Growth research initiative is available at http://www.bnymellon.com/foresight/searchforgrowth.html.
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is the world's leading resource for economic and business research, forecasting and analysis. It provides accurate and impartial intelligence for companies, government agencies, financial institutions and academic organisations around the globe, inspiring business leaders to act with confidence since 1946. EIU products include its flagship Country Reports service, providing political and economic analysis for 195 countries, and a portfolio of subscription-based data and forecasting services. The company also undertakes bespoke research and analysis projects on individual markets and business sectors. More information is available at www.eiu.com or follow us on www.twitter.com/theeiu
The EIU is headquartered in London, UK, with offices in more than 40 cities and a network of some 650 country experts and analysts worldwide. It operates independently as the business-to-business arm of The Economist Group, the leading source of analysis on international business and world affairs.
BNY Mellon is a global financial services company focused on helping clients manage and service their financial assets, operating in 36 countries and serving more than 100 markets. BNY Mellon is a leading provider of financial services for institutions, corporations and high-net-worth individuals, offering superior investment management and investment services through a worldwide client-focused team. It has $27.9 trillion in assets under custody and administration and $1.4 trillion in assets under management, services $11.6 trillion in outstanding debt and processes global payments averaging $1.4 trillion per day. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK). Additional information is available on www.bnymellon.com or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.