Macro Commentary

See patterns others can't

 

Monitoring the macro environment? Whether you need near-term insights for a short- or long-duration trade or you’re looking for the next big opportunity, our strategists offer well-informed macro analysis backed by years of industry experience from former central bankers and investment practitioners.

You may also benefit from our unique perspective as the world’s largest custodian, handling tens of trillions of dollars of transaction flows daily, and our ability to spot trends as they are forming. Whatever the region, asset class or development you’re following, our commentary team delivers timely insights on the biggest trends impacting today’s markets.

Investor Holdings & Flows

With real-time visibility into how a fifth of the world’s investible capital moves through the major money centers and a bench of macro strategy experts, our iFlow team analyzes sovereign bonds, credit, currency and equity markets with the granularity and breadth of data-driven insights you need.

We deliver daily, weekly and monthly reports straight into your inbox as well as timely pieces when major market-moving developments occur.


THE TEAM
John Velis Profile Picture
John Velis

AMERICAS MACRO STRATEGIST

John Arabadjis Profile
John Arabadjis

HEAD OF MACRO STRATEGY PRODUCT & ANALYTICS

Geoff Yu

EMEA MACRO STRATEGIST

Bob Savage Profile
Bob Savage

HEAD OF MARKETS STRATEGY AND INSIGHTS

Wee Khoon Chong

APAC MACRO STRATEGIST


FEATURED

Pharma Haven Currencies: Danish Krone, Swiss Franc

FEBRUARY 7, 2024

Pharmaceutical-related fiscal, trade and capital flows could impact the currencies and economies of Denmark and Switzerland.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Now More Likely in May

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

Impressive jobs data and statements from Fed Chair Powell suggest March is too early for a rate cut. More benign inflation data seems needed. 


INSIGHTS

Macro Morning Briefing

Macro Morning Briefing is a daily publication that provides views on macroeconomic and geopolitical catalysts driving global markets.

Daily Flows

Daily Flows leads with highlights in FX, fixed income and equity markets from the prior business day. Updates of iFlow Mood and iFlow Carry and Trend follow.

Short Thoughts

Short Thoughts is a US-focused weekly (Tuesdays) that offers perspectives on money markets, bank reserves, deposits and Federal Reserve policies.

Weekly Flows & Holdings

Published on Wednesdays, Weekly Flows & Holdings illustrates via histograms and charts, performance and holdings across global bond, currency and equity markets.

Macro Review

Macro Review is published the last week of each month and recaps developments in global bonds, currencies and equities. It includes potential rebalancing flows.

Macro Investor Trends

Published quarterly, Macro Investor Trends examines iFlow data in-depth to construe how real money investors are positioned across asset classes.

Market Movers

Market Movers is published every business day before U.S. markets open. It gives highlights from preceding action and takeaways.

Week Ahead

Week Ahead is published on Sundays and previews activity across global markets over the coming week. Charts, links and a data and events calendar are included.

Economic & Investment Analysis

Navigate the noise of today’s busy market environment with strategic outlooks from our experts on the Global Economics and Investment Strategy (GEIA) team. Every quarter, GEIA serves up midrange perspectives on every asset class, complemented by thought-provoking research on important topics like sustainability finance and de-dollarization.

With the team’s directional predictions, comprehensive analysis into investments that are showing promise and breakdowns of potential economic scenarios, you can focus on more strategic goals.


THE TEAM
Shamik Dhar

GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST

Sebastian Vismara

SENIOR FINANCIAL ECONOMIST

Aninda Mitra

HEAD OF ASIA MACRO AND

INVESTMENT STRATEGY

Jake Jolly

HEAD OF INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

Sonia Meskin

HEAD OF US MACRO


FEATURED

Vantage Point Q1 2024: Shifting Tides 

Aerial view of coastline with ocean waves washing down the sand beach at sunrise, Sanya, Hainan, China. Taken by drone from straight above.

DECEMBER 2023

BNY Mellon Investment Management's Q1 2024 economic and markets outlook.

 

Tidal Forces: Dissecting the Interest Rate Equation

NOVEMBER 2023

BNY Mellon Investment Management’s chief economist, Shamik Dhar, takes a deep dive into the outlook for global inflation.  


INSIGHTS

Vantage Point

Quarterly macro-outlook and investment playbooks.

Weekly Roundup

Our weekly analysis of economic news and equity, bond and foreign exchange performance, complete with major financial benchmarks’ performance.

Monthly Roundup

A detailed monthly data-driven overview providing insight and analysis of the global economy, equities, fixed income and foreign exchange.

Featured Insights

Timely macro and market analysis and how it impacts longer-term outlook.

Points of View

Deep dive research notes into the critical macro and market dynamics that will shape markets in years to come.

Market Watch

Bi-weekly market reviews, outlooks and discussions of investment implications from our chief economist.

To get the full range of insights from the GEIA team, visit im.bnymellon.com or contact your usual relationship manager.

Indexing Strategies

Our Mellon team helps investors navigate major developments in markets and benchmarking, unpacking global capital markets with a practitioner’s view. As the firm’s in-house specialist index investment manager, the team provides commentary that spans both the equity and fixed-income markets and explains the nuances of indexed products, key issues around proxy voting, the evolving macro landscape and much more.


THE TEAM
Vincent Reinhart

CHIEF ECONOMIST & MACRO STRATEGIST AT DREYFUS & MELLON

Stephanie Hill

HEAD OF INDEX

AT MELLON

Nick Tocchio

GLOBAL ECONOMIST AT DREYFUS & MELLON


FEATURED

2024 Global Economic Outlook

JANUARY 2024

Insights into the major developments ahead for the global economy in 2024.

Marching Towards a Rate Cut? 

JANUARY 2024

The market may be getting ahead of itself on both the timing and extent of potential Fed rate cuts.  


INSIGHTS

Monthly Macro Chart

Unpacking the real-world impact of relevant macro themes like inflation and government borrowing.

Fed Thoughts

Reports discussing what we expect to hear at the next FOMC meeting.

Behind the Curtain

Webcasts discussing the outcome of the FOMC meetings and the investment implications.

Quarterly Economic Outlook

Quarterly webcast series breaking down the quarter's topical events and market positioning.

Markets and Economy

Special reports delivering our take on the most relevant themes in money markets and index investing.

To get the full range of Insights from the Mellon team, visit mellon.com or contact your relationship manager.

Money Market Watch

If you need the inside track on central bank moves and their impact on short-term and cash investments, you’ll want to read the regular updates from our Dreyfus commentary team.

Breaking down the big numbers and data releases, the team pays specific attention to how the actions of the Fed and the US Treasury are moving global money markets. There are also special macro reports and webcasts when big news breaks.


THE TEAM
Vincent Reinhart

CHIEF ECONOMIST & MACRO STATEGIST AT DREYFUS & MELLON

John Tobin

HEAD OF INVESTMENT AT DREYFUS

 

Nick Tocchio

GLOBAL ECONOMIST AT DREYFUS & MELLON

 


FEATURED

Fed Thoughts: Boats Against The Current 

JANUARY 2024

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart analyzes how inflation and other macroeconomic pressures could influence Federal Reserve actions.

Money Market Fund Reform

 

JANUARY 2024

Dreyfus offers an update on implementing key money market fund reforms.

 

 


INSIGHTS

Client Webcast

Insights on the latest market news, industry trends, product updates and more.

Money Market Commentary

Weekly analysis of global money market and short-end developments.

Fed Thoughts

Reports on what we expect to hear at the next FOMC meeting.

Behind the Curtain

Webcasts discussing the outcome of the FOMC meetings and the investment implications.

Quarterly Economic Outlook

Quarterly webcast series breaking down the quarter's topical events and market positioning.

Markets and Economy

Special reports delivering our take on the most relevant themes in money markets and index investing.

To get the full range of insights from the Dreyfus team, visit dreyfus.com or contact your usual relationship manager.

Wealth Management Perspectives

Our Wealth strategists and investment practitioners monitor the week’s major equity and bond market moves, providing actionable insights that can give you the edge. The team’s investment updates deliver the latest intelligence about what’s happening, what it all means and the bottom line for your portfolio.

These weekly viewpoints are served up alongside quarterly outlooks that provide the key takeaways and our own asset-class positioning.


THE TEAM
Leo Grohowski

CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER

Alicia Levine

HEAD OF INVESTMENT STRATEGY AND EQUITY ADVISORY SOLUTIONS

John Flahive

HEAD OF FIXED INCOME


FEATURED

Catherine Keating in Barron's: How to Invest Like an Institution

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Over the past three decades, two seismic changes in the asset and wealth management industry have had a dramatic impact on the U.S. economy and public markets.

 

 

 

 

2024 Capital Market Assumptions:
The Path to Normalization

NOVEMBER 21, 2023

The 2024 edition of BNY Mellon Wealth Management’s 10-Year Capital Market Assumptions report offers projections for 46 asset classes across equities, fixed income and alternatives as well as volatilities and correlations over the next decade. 

 


INSIGHTS

Chart of the Week

A weekly theme summarized in a single chart.

Capital Markets Assumptions

Projections for asset class returns, volatilities and correlations over the next decade, helping to shape the design of investors’ long-term portfolios.

To get the full range of Insights from the Wealth Management team, visit bnymellonwealth.com or contact your relationship manager.

Advisory Outlook

Get insight into the latest investment themes with market analysis from BNY Mellon Advisors, Inc., an affiliated registered investment adviser of Pershing and Pershing X. We showcase capital market trends through a thematic lens to help advisors navigate shifting market environments with their clients.

Each quarter, our investment team provides strategic outlooks on capital market developments and explains the full significance of the major news affecting investing, economics and geopolitics.


THE TEAM
Matthew Forester

DEPUTY CIO OF BNY MELLON ADVISORS


INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

Elaborate Contraptions

JANUARY 2024

Explore the complex mechanisms of the global economy and capital markets.

Please refer to Business Disclaimers for disclaimers and disclosures.