Cross-border exposure to the U.S. Treasury market is down…due to capital losses on bonds as yields have risen.
Wealthy families are keeping their powder dry for future investing opportunities.
Treasurys accounted for 29% of our cleared fixed income volumes in the first 8 months…77% of that volume was in T-bills.
Flows into equities with a high correlation to inflation have dropped.
Institutional investor long equity bias was cooling in September.
We think there is potential for a second leg up in rates…in Europe but also in the U.S.
We believe there is a 50% probability of a U.S. recession in 2024, [and] in Europe an 80% probability.