Macro Commentary

See patterns others can't

 

Monitoring the macro environment? Whether you need near-term insights for a short- or long-duration trade or you’re looking for the next big opportunity, our strategists offer well-informed macro analysis backed by years of industry experience from former central bankers and investment practitioners.

You may also benefit from our unique perspective as the world’s largest custodian, handling tens of trillions of dollars of transaction flows daily, and our ability to spot trends as they are forming. Whatever the region, asset class or development you’re following, our commentary team delivers timely insights on the biggest trends impacting today’s markets.

Investor Holdings & Flows

With real-time visibility into how a fifth of the world’s investible capital moves through the major money centers and a bench of macro strategy experts, our iFlow team analyzes sovereign bonds, credit, currency and equity markets with the granularity and breadth of data-driven insights you need.

We deliver daily, weekly and monthly reports straight into your inbox as well as timely pieces when major market-moving developments occur.


THE TEAM
John Velis Profile Picture
John Velis

AMERICAS MACRO STRATEGIST

John Arabadjis Profile
John Arabadjis

HEAD OF MACRO STRATEGY PRODUCT & ANALYTICS

Geoff Yu

EMEA MACRO STRATEGIST

Bob Savage Profile
Bob Savage

HEAD OF MARKETS STRATEGY AND INSIGHTS

Wee Khoon Chong

APAC MACRO STRATEGIST


FEATURED

Drainage From Fed's RRP Resumes

SEPTEMBER '23

Reverse repo daily balances have fallen by $600bn since June 1.

Demystifying Market 

Consensus

JUNE '23

iFlow shows U.S. short duration fixed-income holdings the highest since 2013. 


INSIGHTS

iFlow Morning Briefing

Our daily analysis of the latest market developments.

iFlow Monitor

An instant visual glimpse of the flow activity recorded over the past week, month and quarter.

iFlow Weekly

Examines flows for 31 economies tracked across FX, equities and fixed income, with insights from our market strategy team.

iFlow Monthly

Highlighting the most interesting longer-term investment trends our strategists have been seeing over the past 30 days.

iFlow Short Thoughts

Weekly insight into what we are seeing at the short end of the curve.

iFlow Markets Morning Call

A daily email summarizing overnight market and policy action, data releases and what to watch.

iFlow Weekly Insights and Themes

A Sunday email covering what changed in the prior week, what’s expected in the upcoming week’s agenda and ongoing themes.

iFlow Vision

Deep-dive reports focusing on the latest macro events.

iFlow Investor Trends

Special reports analyzing key thematic developments, as viewed through the prism of our flow volumes.

Economic & Investment Analysis

Navigate the noise of today’s busy market environment with strategic outlooks from our experts on the Global Economics and Investment Strategy (GEIA) team. Every quarter, GEIA serves up midrange perspectives on every asset class, complemented by thought-provoking research on important topics like sustainability finance and de-dollarization.

With the team’s directional predictions, comprehensive analysis into investments that are showing promise and breakdowns of potential economic scenarios, you can focus on more strategic goals.


THE TEAM
Shamik Dhar

GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST

Sebastian Vismara

SENIOR FINANCIAL ECONOMIST

Aninda Mitra

HEAD OF ASIA MACRO AND

INVESTMENT STRATEGY

Jake Jolly

HEAD OF INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

Sonia Meskin

HEAD OF US MACRO


FEATURED

When to Extend?

APRIL '23

The time to consider extending fixed income duration is now.

Vantage Point: Slow Burn

JULY '23

Our outlook and investment playbook for the second half of 2023.


INSIGHTS

Vantage Point

Quarterly macro-outlook and investment playbooks.

Weekly Roundup

Our weekly analysis of economic news and equity, bond and foreign exchange performance, complete with major financial benchmarks’ performance.

Monthly Roundup

A detailed monthly data-driven overview providing insight and analysis of the global economy, equities, fixed income and foreign exchange.

Featured Insights

Timely macro and market analysis and how it impacts longer-term outlook.

Points of View

Deep dive research notes into the critical macro and market dynamics that will shape markets in years to come.

Market Watch

Bi-weekly market reviews, outlooks and discussions of investment implications from our chief economist.

To get the full range of insights from the GEIA team, visit im.bnymellon.com or contact your usual relationship manager.

Indexing Strategies

Our Mellon team helps investors navigate major developments in markets and benchmarking, unpacking global capital markets with a practitioner’s view. As the firm’s in-house specialist index investment manager, the team provides commentary that spans both the equity and fixed-income markets and explains the nuances of indexed products, key issues around proxy voting, the evolving macro landscape and much more.


THE TEAM
Vincent Reinhart

CHIEF ECONOMIST & MACRO STRATEGIST AT DREYFUS & MELLON

Stephanie Hill

HEAD OF INDEX

AT MELLON

Nick Tocchio

GLOBAL ECONOMIST AT DREYUS & MELLON


FEATURED

When Billions Move: The Nasdaq-100® Index Special Rebalance

JULY '23

We examine the details behind the rebalancing and what prompted it.

Webcast: The Tragedy of Central Banking

 

JULY '23

We explain how the loss of price stability is a tragedy of central banking.


INSIGHTS

Monthly Macro Chart

Unpacking the real-world impact of relevant macro themes like inflation and government borrowing.

Fed Thoughts

Reports discussing what we expect to hear at the next FOMC meeting.

Behind the Curtain

Webcasts discussing the outcome of the FOMC meetings and the investment implications.

Quarterly Economic Outlook

Quarterly webcast series breaking down the quarter's topical events and market positioning.

Markets and Economy

Special reports delivering our take on the most relevant themes in money markets and index investing.

To get the full range of Insights from the Mellon team, visit mellon.com or contact your relationship manager.

Money Market Watch

If you need the inside track on central bank moves and their impact on short-term and cash investments, you’ll want to read the regular updates from our Dreyfus commentary team.

Breaking down the big numbers and data releases, the team pays specific attention to how the actions of the Fed and the US Treasury are moving global money markets. There are also special macro reports and webcasts when big news breaks.


THE TEAM
Vincent Reinhart

CHIEF ECONOMIST & MACRO STATEGIST AT DREYFUS & MELLON

John Tobin

HEAD OF INVESTMENT AT DREYFUS

 

Nick Tocchio

GLOBAL ECONOMIST AT DREYFUS & MELLON

 


FEATURED

Fitch Downgrade of US Long-Term Ratings

AUGUST '23

We summarize Fitch’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and its unfolding impact.

Navigating Money Market Fund Reform

JULY '23

We provide an overview of recent reforms, including key points and implementation timeline.


INSIGHTS

Client Webcast

Insights on the latest market news, industry trends, product updates and more.

Money Market Commentary

Weekly analysis of global money market and short-end developments.

Fed Thoughts

Reports on what we expect to hear at the next FOMC meeting.

Behind the Curtain

Webcasts discussing the outcome of the FOMC meetings and the investment implications.

Quarterly Economic Outlook

Quarterly webcast series breaking down the quarter's topical events and market positioning.

Markets and Economy

Special reports delivering our take on the most relevant themes in money markets and index investing.

To get the full range of insights from the Dreyfus team, visit dreyfus.com or contact your usual relationship manager.

Wealth Management Perspectives

Our Wealth strategists and investment practitioners monitor the week’s major equity and bond market moves, providing actionable insights that can give you the edge. The team’s investment updates deliver the latest intelligence about what’s happening, what it all means and the bottom line for your portfolio.

These weekly viewpoints are served up alongside quarterly outlooks that provide the key takeaways and our own asset-class positioning.


THE TEAM
Leo Grohowski

CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER

Alicia Levine

HEAD OF INVESTMENT STRATEGY AND EQUITY ADVISORY SOLUTIONS

John Flahive

HEAD OF FIXED INCOME


FEATURED

Quarterly Economic and Market Outlook

JULY '23

Join Chief Investment Officer Leo Grohowski and a panel of experts as they share their outlook and perspectives on the economy and markets.

REQUIRES LOGIN    

Steady Jobs Market Keeps Recession at Bay

JULY  '23

Continued growth in wages and jobs is underpinning the resilience of the U.S. economy.


INSIGHTS

Chart of the Week

A weekly theme summarized in a single chart.

Capital Markets Assumptions

Projections for asset class returns, volatilities and correlations over the next decade, helping to shape the design of investors’ long-term portfolios.

To get the full range of Insights from the Wealth Management team, visit bnymellonwealth.com or contact your relationship manager.

Advisory Outlook

Get insight into the latest investment themes with market analysis from BNY Mellon Advisors, Inc., an affiliated registered investment adviser of Pershing and Pershing X. We showcase capital market trends through a thematic lens to help advisors navigate shifting market environments with their clients.

Each quarter, our investment team provides strategic outlooks on capital market developments and explains the full significance of the major news affecting investing, economics and geopolitics.


THE TEAM
Matthew Forester

CIO OF BNY MELLON ADVISORS


INSIGHTS

Investment Insights: A Midsummer Night's AI Hallucination

JULY '23

How AI and machine learning are impacting capital markets, the continued implications of tightening monetary policy and where investors may find value.

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