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The Election Effect

Impact of a Clinton or Trump Administration on Global Financial Markets | November 2016

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With the election quickly approaching, balanced analysis from investment experts is vitally important. With this objective in mind, we sought the perspectives of some of our world-class investment boutiques and thought leaders and asked them to share their insights with you.

CONFERENCE CALL REPLAY

... in an election cycle where the unexpected has come to be expected.

If you missed our conference call on October 27, you can still get timely commentary and insights to share with your clients. Listen to the replay or download the report. For more information, please visit dreyfus.com or call 1-877-334-6899.


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Assessing Key Implications of the Election's Outcome

by Mark Bogar, Head of Global Equity Team, The Boston Company Asset Management, LLC

With the U.S. election rapidly approaching, polls suggest victory for Hillary Clinton, a Democratic Senate, and a Republican House. As we have learned from the UK’s recent Brexit vote, polls can be very wrong. Nevertheless, certain post-election investment implications will be the same regardless of a Clinton or Donald Trump victory, while other implications will vary significantly.

“While surprises may certainly come on November, the trajectory of both the U.S. and global growth appears to be for lower growth and relatively low interest rates. Investments that produce solid yields or robust growth will most likely continue to be in favor regardless of the election outcome.”

— Mark Bogar

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The Expected and Unexpected Outcomes

by Sinead Colton, Head of Investment Strategy, Mellon Capital Management

For many weeks, Hillary Clinton has held on to the lead in the vast majority of polls. However, polls are predictive, not guaranteed. A Trump victory would be an unexpected outcome and could precipitate significant price adjustments in the short term.

“Most election coverage has focused on the candidates’ policies, but neither is likely to implement key elements of their platforms unless their party controls Congress.”

— Sinead Colton

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Predictions for an Unpredictable Period

by Paul Markham, Lead Investment Manager, International Equities, Newton Investment Management

If elected, Donald Trump’s fiscal spending plans would likely put pressure on U.S. Treasuries. However, U.S. companies, which currently pay a high corporate tax rate, would benefit from a reduction. Trump’s desire to tax large U.S. multinationals could have a significant and negative impact on these organizations considering that comparatively little tax is paid onshore now. Though this scenario could occur if Hillary Clinton were elected, it would likely be to a lesser extent.

“The consensus views Clinton as a more favorable outcome for markets as she represents the status quo. However, we see a continuation of the policies that have been in place since the financial crisis as little cause for optimism.”

— Paul Markham

READ FULL COMMENTARY (PDF - 937 KB)

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