Next Recession in U.S. Likely Postponed Until After 2016 Presidential Election
NEW YORK and LONDON, May 14, 2013 — With monetary policy likely to remain supportive of economic expansion for an extended period of time, BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard Hoey expects a prolonged multi-year global economic expansion, according to his most recent Economic Update.
"In the short run, the global economy has been in a subcycle of slower growth within its sustained expansion," says Hoey. "This is due to a combination of factors, including the final months of the recession in the overall European economy, this year's fiscal drag in the U.S. and some rebalancing in China. However, we expect acceleration in global economic growth near the end of 2013 that will significantly strengthen throughout 2014.
Other report observations include:
"Bottom of the Saucer" in Europe – Hoey expects the overall European economy to hit the "bottom of the saucer" in the last half of 2013. He expects a gradual saucer-shaped pattern in European economic activity rather than a V-shaped or U-shaped recovery and is hopeful that the European recession will end later this year.
Next Recession in U.S. Unlikely Until After Next Presidential Election – With the Federal Reserve likely to continue its easy monetary policy and the unlikelihood of substantial inflationary pressures soon, Hoey expects the next recession in the U.S. is likely to be postponed until after the next Presidential election in November 2016. Next year, Hoey expects a faster pace of growth in the U.S. economy, probably 3% or more.
No Hard Landing in China – Chinese policymakers appear to accept that the deceleration of trend economic growth is unavoidable says Hoey. Hoey does not expect a "hard landing" in China but rather a sustained economic expansion at a somewhat decelerated pace.
See http://www.bnymellon.com/foresight/update-video.html for Hoey's complete May 2013 Economic Update.
BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world's leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, with $1.4 trillion in assets under management. It encompasses BNY Mellon's affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. More information can be found at www.bnymellon.com.
BNY Mellon is a global investments company dedicated to helping its clients manage and service their financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. Whether providing financial services for institutions, corporations or individual investors, BNY Mellon delivers informed investment management and investment services in 36 countries and more than 100 markets. As of March 31, 2013, BNY Mellon had $26.3 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration, and $1.4 trillion in assets under management. BNY Mellon can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create, trade, hold, manage, service, distribute or restructure investments. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK). Additional information is available on www.bnymellon.com, or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.
All information source BNY Mellon as of March 31, 2013. This press release is qualified for issuance in the UK and US and is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation of securities or investment services or an endorsement thereof in any jurisdiction or in any circumstance in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized. This press release is issued by BNY Mellon Investment Management (US) and BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited (ex-US) to members of the financial press and media and the information contained herein should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise due to stock market and currency movements. When you sell your investment you may get back less than you originally invested. Registered office of BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited: BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England no. 1118580. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. A BNY Mellon Company.