October 09, 2012

Flood of Liquidity Lowers Downside Risk to Global Economy, According to Standish

BNY Mellon Investment Manager Sees Interest Payments on Bonds More Likely Than Capital Appreciation to Generate Cash for Investors

NEW YORK and LONDON, October 9, 2012 — The flood of liquidity coming from global central banks has lowered the downside risk for the global economy, according to Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC, the Boston-based fixed income specialist for BNY Mellon.

Standish executives David Leduc, chief investment officer, and Thomas D. Higgins, global macro strategist, presented their views during a conference call today with clients and consultants. From a global macro prospective, Standish expects global economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2013, slightly below the consensus forecast of 3.6 percent.

"In developed markets, we are more pessimistic than the consensus on the United States due to the impending fiscal cliff," said Higgins.  "In emerging markets, we have downgraded our forecast for Asia because of weaker global demand.  However, we have upgraded our forecast for Latin America because of stronger domestic demand and higher commodity prices."

The Standish executives noted that U.S. credit markets historically have weathered low-growth environments relatively well. 

"Given the Fed's assurance that interest rates will remain low for a longer period of time, investors can expect to benefit from the additional yield of corporate bonds," Leduc said.  He added, "Peripheral European government bond yields still have room to fall if and when the European Central Bank begins buying their debt under the Outright Money Transactions Program."

Higgins cautioned that the markets still face the threat of volatility from the uncertain outcome in dealing with U.S. fiscal cliff and the timing of bail-out requests in peripheral Europe.

Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC, with approximately $97.5 billion of assets under management, provides investment management services across a broad spectrum of fixed income asset classes. These include corporate credit (investment-grade and high-yield), emerging markets debt (dollar-denominated and local currency), core / core plus and opportunistic (U.S. and global) strategies.  Standish also offers full service capabilities in insurance and liability driven investing. The firm also includes assets managed by Standish personnel acting as dual officers of The Dreyfus Corporation and The Bank of New York Mellon.

BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world's leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, with $1.3 trillion in assets under management. It encompasses BNY Mellon's affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. More information can be found at www.bnymellon.com.

BNY Mellon is a global financial services company focused on helping clients manage and service their financial assets, operating in 36 countries and serving more than 100 markets. BNY Mellon is a leading provider of financial services for institutions, corporations and high-net-worth individuals, offering superior investment management and investment services through a worldwide client-focused team. It has $27.1 trillion in assets under custody and administration and $1.3 trillion in assets under management, services $11.5 trillion in outstanding debt and processes global payments averaging $1.4 trillion per day. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK). Additional information is available on www.bnymellon.com or follow us on Twitter@BNYMellon.

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